When both players need 2, most players use one of the following five strategies which are commented in the book: 1) Doubling Immediately, 2) Market Loser Criterion, 3) Wait-and-See, 4) Waiting for a Tough Cube, and 5) Becoming Too Strong. The most popular is the Market Loser Criterion, discussed in detail by Kit Woolsey in his booklet "How To Play Tournament Backgammon" and in several of his "MATCHQIZ" annotated matches.
This problem corresponds to the fourth strategy: "Waiting for a Tough Cube".
At this score, by passing, White enters the Crawford game needing 2 points for victory, thus obtaining 30% match chances. By taking, he puts the match on the line. Therefore, to take, a player needs at least 30% game winning chances - much more than the 22% he needs in money play where the cube is live.
White, aware the he must be more cautious in taking at this score than for money, and perhaps unconciously reacting to gammon threats, may pass uncomfortably, but still should clearly take.
In this position, Black has many market losing sequences, most of them consisting of a hit by Black and a dance by White. Clearly, Black should double.
Just as clearly, White should take; he has a 4-prime, and Black's two men still on the ace-point are not near the edge of this prime. Though the position is gammonish, gammons are meaningless with the cube at 2. White's game-winning chances are much higher than the 30% he needs to take.
In the match (corresponding to the World Cup V, played in Dallas, in August 1996), Black did double. Surprisingly, however, White passed. Even top players find it hard to react correctly to some doubles at this score. White's misguided pass added substantially to Black's chances in the match.
This problem extracted from "Cubes and Gammons Near the End of the Match" by A. Ortega and D. Kleinman.